Photograph — African union

As African countries have, in the past two weeks, signalled their intentions of leaving the International Criminal Court (ICC), there are indications this particular turn of events could influence the choice of African Union (AU) chairperson in January next year. As Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma prepares for her exit as chairperson from the pan-African body, her replacement would definitely need to make his/her views regarding the ICC known before election time. In this light, some of the leading candidates are already speaking out.

Botswana’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pelomoni Venson-Motoi, who is one of the leading candidates for the job, spoke earlier this week on the issue. “I don’t see why we should be pulling out (of ICC). The good thing is that a few more members now, within the AU, agree that pulling out is not the solution. We should be working towards fixing,” she told Reuters. Venson-Motoi who almost won the AU elections first held in July looks the most likely candidate for the job. She represents one of the most stable and respected democracies in Africa in Botswana. Her comments will not go down well with the ICC-leaving agitators.

South Africa, the first African country who showed interest in the ICC and the second to announce its exit, has been on some “breaking bad” spree. Its internal, and now external, wranglings are making what was a once a respected democracy a sham. However, South Africa still holds much sway when it comes to the AU, especially in Southern Africa. Regarding decisions, she’s a rallying point for most of the Southern African countries, including Botswana. Venson-Motoi’s comments look like she’s interfering with that sovereign decision, which might have an effect on another decision; her election into the AU chairperson post. Zimbabwe, Namibia, Angola are just a few who have leaders that would disagree with Venson-Motoi.

Venson-Motoi’s closest opponent for the position is Kenya’s Foreign Minister, Amina Mohammed. Kenya and the ICC have a long-standing feud, dating back to the aftermath of Kenya’s 2007-2008 presidential elections. ICC accused current president Uhuru Kenyatta of crimes against humanity after election violence killed at least 1,333 people and rendered more than 600,000 homeless. Both ICC and Kenya have been at loggerheads since then, even after the International Criminal Court dropped its charges against the president in 2014 and his vice this year. Kenya also promised to join South Africa, Burundi and Gambia in withdrawing from the ICC this week. Amina Mohammed would surely be a rallying point for some in East Africa, a region that has arguably the largest concentration of African dictators.

It might sound petty and far-fetched, but African leaders have made decisions more implausible than this. In fact, their decision to leave the ICC based on some anti-Africa bias is implausible. And in a situation where their war crimes in the case of Pierre Nkurunziza, and those of their allies–Zuma and his friend from Sudan, Al-Bashir–are subjects of investigations, withdrawing from the ICC is probably the best decision they would ever make. An AU chairperson championing their exit from the ICC is a plus; any other candidate who is against that might not be welcome. The African Union is a cabal of strong-men and you have to heel to their decisions or be chained up. The decision for the next AU chairman would surely be influenced by the views the candidates hold.

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