“Emergency rooms are closed, many hospital wards are as well leaving people who are sick with heart disease, trauma, pregnancy complications, pneumonia, malaria and all the everyday health emergencies with nowhere to go.” – Dr. Richard Besser, health and medical editor for ABC News
In September 2014, the World Health Organization reported that 40 percent of all Ebola cases have happened in just the last three weeks. The infection rate is has been alarming. It is a frightening virus that causes panic before there is the slightest need for panic.
The perspective may differ, but the impact is the same. The first perspective is that we see Ebola as frightening because we have little chance of survival, depending on when it is detected. Then of course, the trials of the latest vaccine have not been tested as a preventative measure. The second perspective is that more than one million people die each year, children and adults, of malaria. All it takes to fix this problem is a mosquito net.
In a pointed quote, Dr. Tom Frieden, the Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention iterated, “It is the world’s first Ebola epidemic, and it’s spiralling out of control. It’s bad now, and it’s going to get worse in the very near future. There is still a window of opportunity to tamp it down, but that window is closing. We really have to act now.”
The third perspective is based on the quote by Richard Preston, The Hot Zone: The Terrifying True Story of the Origins of the Ebola Virus, “The earth is attempting to rid itself of an infection by human parasite.”
There has to be a truth to the existence of Ebola. The truth may not matter if there is no truth to this perspective by Richard Preston. It is a poignant human and economic stance, but a stance it is. The very first reported case in the Ebola outbreak desolating communities in West Africa back tracks to December 2013, in Guéckédou. This is a densely forested area of Guinea near the border with Liberia and Sierra Leone that also leaves a question mark as to the real origins of the virus. Important though to note, this is the 26th outbreak and the first to occur in West Africa.
Through cross-border travel, by late March, Liberia reported eight suspected cases and Sierra Leone went public with six reported cases. Towards the tail-end of June, 759 people had clinical infections and 467 people had died from the virus, the start of the worst ever Ebola outbreak. The panic spread and infection and death toll kept climbing. By January 18th 2015, 21,724 cases and 8,641 deaths had been reported worldwide, a death rate of 39 percent, all from the same three countries.
The stories, media reports and television coverage of human anguish and viral carnage coming out of West Africa are staggering. “Although characterised by the United Nations as micro-outbreaks, the human cost of this disease is immense but the fall-out of the epidemic is not just health related – it’s also economic”, says KPMG Africa.
Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea account for just one percent of the Sub-Saharan African economy, and the World Bank estimates that an uncontained Ebola epidemic could reach deep into the West African region’s pockets for the mid-term, by up to $32.6 billion.
Says Anuschka Coovadia, Head of Healthcare Markets, KPMG Africa: “From an economic perspective, what Ebola has essentially done is shed light on fear-driven behaviour and over-reaction which drives economic damage. However, if we consider the inter-connectivity of countries and continents, Ebola cannot be viewed as an Africa ‘issue’, it needs to be viewed as a global challenge that demands a new paradigm and a new approach to the relationship with Africa.”
Today, KPMG put out their synopsis of the impact and responsibilities of doing business on the continent in its report: In Sickness and Health: The Business Impact of Ebola
Is Fear or Ebola the real threat to African Renaissance?
The negative impact on the outbreak has less to do with the direct costs of dealing with the disease, than the costs of aversion behaviour. This type of behaviour has also shown a sentiment in thinking in other African countries, fairly distant from the countries experiencing outbreaks of the virus.
Aversion behaviour in this case includes fear of association people from impacted countries and withdrawal from the work place, shutting down of businesses, transportation and borders with affected countries, especially if international travel or cross-border liaisons have to take place.
“While closing of borders may to some extent, contribute to protecting citizens from exposure and reassure the population that measures are being taking to ensure public health and safety – it negatively impacts trade flow and therefore limits growth and development,” continues Coovadia. “However, until containment can be demonstrated, closing of borders and other examples of aversion behaviour are likely to continue and the business impact felt.”
The Business impact
Liberia has experienced a sharp economic impact across all sectors with the World Bank GDP estimates for 2014 decreasing from 5.9 percent to 2.5 percent. Without a positive impact, downgrades are imminent. Ironically the KPMG report highlights that the greatest economic impact has resulted from fear-driven behaviour changes as opposed to direct costs such as sickness, death and care-giving time.
Affected industries where Ebola had the most impact are in the agriculture sector, where projected agriculture growth was reduced from 5.7 percent to 3.3 percent. This naturally affected key export commodities such as cocoa and palm oil. In direct correlation, coffee production has been halved, with cocoa is down a third and palm production down by 75 percent.
Despite neighbouring economies not being directly affected by viral infections, Southern and East Africa primarily felt the effects in the tourism industry. Tourism accounts for around 10 percent of the sub-Saharan African economy and worth $ 170 billion annually.
Business options for measured response
“The Ebola Epidemic demonstrates with absolute clarity the interconnectivity not only of countries but continents as well. More than ever the world is married to Africa and Africa to the rest of the world. It is for this reason that a state of a fragile healthcare system in rural Guinea can have a direct impact on the streets of New York City. As a result, the role of business is fundamental to containing the epidemic,” continues Coovadia. “No longer can we do business, while ignoring the dire state of the healthcare systems of the countries we trade in – as business we need to drive awareness, raise funding and work in communities using our own internal capacity and infrastructure to assist with training and research. The responsibility to find ways to support development is ours because, now more than ever, the consequences of neglecting this, will be felt by all.”
“Whether it be in sickness or in health, global businesses will need to remain committed to the countries in Africa, which they seek to do business in. We are now more connected to each other’s success and well-being than ever before and the shock of the Ebola epidemic has made us all aware of the inherent dangers and sheer negligence of continuing to ignore the dire state of healthcare systems in Africa, while still expecting to do business on the continent,” concludes Coovadia.
