The COVID-19 pandemic has wreaked havoc on industries and economies all over the world. However, while some industries are quickly recovering, others are lagging. To check the spread of the virus and protect the well-being of citizens, governments around the world imposed COVID-19 restrictions on both national and international mobility. As a result, tourism, an industry that thrives on mobility, experienced significant contraction.
According to a joint report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), the global economy could lose $4 trillion due to the direct impact of COVID-19 on tourism and its ripple effect on other sectors closely linked to it in 2020 and 2021.
Based on the report, international tourist arrivals fell by approximately one billion (73 percent) in 2020 and by 88 percent in the first quarter of 2021. The report warns that the recovery of the tourism sector is heavily reliant on the global uptake of COVID-19 vaccines. It assumes a 75 percent reduction in tourism in countries with low vaccination rates and a 37 percent reduction in tourism in countries with high vaccination rates.
“The world needs a global vaccination effort that will protect workers, mitigate adverse social effects and make strategic decisions regarding tourism, taking potential structural changes into account,” UNCTAD Acting Secretary-General, Isabelle Durant said.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said, “Tourism is a lifeline for millions, and advancing vaccination to protect communities and support tourism’s safe restart is critical to the recovery of jobs and generation of much-needed resources, especially in developing countries, many of which are highly dependent on international tourism.”
For many developing countries, poor access and distribution of vaccines are projected to make a post-pandemic recovery in the tourism industry remarkably slow, with an estimated reduction in arrivals being between 60 and 80 percent.
Coronavirus and tourism in Africa
As of the time of writing this article, Africa has over 5,670,574 COVID-19 cases, with 145,093 deaths. The African continent would receive approximately 600 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines by the end of 2021, according to a supply forecast made in March 2021 under the COVAX initiative. This would equate to vaccinating 60 percent of Africa’s 1.3 billion people by June 2022. However, only about two doses of vaccine have been administered per 100 people on the continent, compared to an average of 68 doses per 100 in developed countries. Less than one percent of Africa’s population is fully vaccinated.
It is important to note that a new strain of the virus has recently resulted in an increase in the number of confirmed cases and deaths on the continent. The Delta variant, as it is known, is the most contagious at the moment, and it is estimated to be 30 to 60 percent more transmissible than other variants. Its presence has been documented in 16 African countries, with South Africa accounting for more than half of all cases. South Africa is one of the African countries that benefits the most from tourism. Tourism employs over a million people in the country, as it does in Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Nigeria.
Between April and May 2020, the South African Department of Tourism provided an R200 million (approximately $1 million) Tourism Relief Fund to assist Small Micro and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMMEs), which make up the majority of the industry. The relief fund is intended to ensure the long-term survival of SMMEs in tourism after the pandemic. However, with the presence of the Delta Variant and a low vaccination rate, the industry’s chances of recovery appear to be bleak.
Last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a return to level-four measures. Lockdown restrictions have been strengthened, and there is a ban on gatherings as well as restrictions on travel in and out of the country. South Africa has over two million COVID-19 cases and over 61,000 deaths. Less than two percent of a population of approximately 59 million have been vaccinated.
According to a 2019 UN report, the tourism sector accounts for more than 10 percent of GDP in 15 African countries, and tourism accounts for more than eight percent of national wealth in 20 of the 55 African states. Tourism contributes significantly to GDP in countries such as Seychelles, Cape Verde, and Mauritius (above 25 percent of GDP). Tourism employment accounts for more than 20 percent of total employment in Seychelles, Cape Verde, So Tomé and Principe, and Mauritius, according to the report.
Seychelles, a small country on Africa’s east coast with a population of about 98,347 people, has vaccinated more people per capita against Covid-19 than any other country in the world. More than 70 percent of the population has received at least one dose. Despite this accomplishment, there has been a recent surge in cases, forcing the country to impose some mobility restrictions. The increase in cases is thought to be the result of increased economic activity. There have been over 15,000 Coronavirus cases in Seychelles, with 71 deaths.
These countries are clear indicators that the African tourism industry will take some time to stabilize. As a result of the pandemic in Africa, it is estimated that approximately 12.4 million jobs in the travel and tourism industry (equivalent to 51 percent of tourism employment) were lost.
The tourism sector is expected to recover faster in countries with high vaccination rates, like France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. However, according to the UNWTO, tourism experts do not expect a return to pre-pandemic arrival levels until 2023 or later due to barriers such as travel restrictions, slow virus containment, low traveller confidence, and poor economic environment.
Written by Adekunle Agbetiloye
