On Monday, April 27, 2020, Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari announced a gradual easing of lockdown measures in Abuja, Lagos state, and Ogun state. These three states have observed a month of total lockdown since the President’s first call of a two-week lockdown, followed by another two-week extension.

As stated by President Buhari, the reason for the latest development is due to the increasing economic crisis. The continuous fall in crude oil price has led to a significant fall in export revenue for Nigeria. Consequently, the country is experiencing a gaping deficit in government budget. This, in combination with the depletion of FX reserves, has impacted the naira, hence the strategic devaluation of the currency.

Furthermore, local independent oil firms who have borrowed to invest in new oil fields are drowning in debt and struggling to stay afloat. If things continue as they are, some would shut down, causing further job loss. “Many of our citizens have lost their means of livelihoods. Many businesses have also shut down,” President Buhari said in his last nationwide address. 

In order to provide much-needed relief for the economy, the FCT, Lagos and Ogun states began a phased and gradual ease off of their lockdown from 9am yesterday, Saturday, 2nd May 2020. 

Earlier this week, Babajide Sanwoolu, the governor of Lagos State, shared a broader framework on how the president’s directives will be implemented in Lagos state. Part of the measures includes a 9am to 6pm operating time for selected businesses, an overnight curfew from 8pm to 6am, and a 9am to 3pm opening time for restaurants and open markets, with only takeouts and delivery services allowed for the former.

The reaction of Lagosians to both the president and governor Sanwoolu’s address vary and remain as diverse as the members of the state’s social strata. While many welcome the rollback on the strict lockdown, others opine that it is necessary to observe a strict lockdown as the number of COVID-19 cases increase in the state.

Yesterday, Nigeria recorded 220 new cases of COVID-19, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 2388, with Lagos recording the most number of new cases. In the last three days, Lagos has recorded fewer cases of Covid-19, but this has not allayed the fears of its residents or cause them to be in support of the gradual removal of the lockdown. 

For one, Nigeria is yet to begin testing on a large scale. With a population of about 200 million people, Nigeria has conducted a little over 16,000 tests as of today, so the numbers reported are not indicative of a low level of spread or a decline in the number of cases in Lagos state. If anything, the country is recording an exponential increase in the number of cases.

Secondly, the nature of the disease being that a person may have and transmit it while being asymptomatic is worrying, particularly now that businesses are to reopen and people are to resume jobs. How much protection can people possibly arm themselves with? And for how long? It doesn’t help that protective gears like face masks and gloves have become expensive. The price range for a pack of 50 disposable surgical masks is from N12,000 to N22,000. The price of a pack of disposable gloves ranges from N4500 to N7000. Before now, both cost nothing over N2000.

The state’s public transportation system is yet another source of concern for Lagosians as transport vehicles in the city are typically unsanitary and crammed. Although the governor has announced a list of proactive measures to reduce the risk of contagion in public vehicles, many worry that these measures will not be observed by transport companies and operators. 

For example, there has been a ban on interstate travel, but this order has not been adhered to. Trucks and other vehicles transporting essential items have been caught smuggling people in and out of the state. Also, stories on social media suggest that security agents who ought to enforce the ban on interstate travels are often the people who flout it by running interstate transport services at highly exorbitant prices.

There is also an anxiety that strict adherence to the curfew is unattainable in Lagos given the city’s infamous gridlocks, especially during peak hours. An increase in the number of daily commuters would certainly increase traffic, and this means people would inadvertently break the curfew. Now, the fear of many Lagosians isn’t necessarily the fact that the city’s disposition would force people to break the curfew, it is that this would cause an increase in police brutality.

The Nigerian Police Force has a reputation for brutality. Last month, the National Human Rights Commission reported that security agents enforcing lockdown directives across Nigeria have killed more people than the disease itself. At the beginning of the lockdown, stories, photo and video evidence of police brutality littered social media as people recounted the horrors they have witnessed, perpetrated by members of the police force. 

On the other side of these arguments against the ease off of the lockdown, are the city’s poor underclass and working class, and its relatively poor middle class. People in the former stratum make up Lagos’ informal economy and are often dependent on daily wages and direct contact with people to earn a living. In 2017, over 65 percent of the city’s 17 million inhabitants made up its informal economy. 

With most businesses and companies closed, the lockdown also weighs on the city’s middle class. People have been furloughed and some others forced to take pay cuts. Some of these people support the government’s decision to rollback the lockdown.

As it is, the arguments on both sides are valid. Nigeria lacks the capacity to maintain a lockdown, in terms of scaled-up welfare and security for its citizens. Private citizens have had come up with welfare programs to make up for the government’s inadequacies. 

However, the country also lacks the medical capacity to manage an influx of COVID-19 cases. Although the Lagos state government seems equipped to manage the disease, it isn’t. Should there be a spike in the number of cases, given the decision to ease the lockdown, the state’s healthcare system would be overwhelmed.

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