of Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, were expected to proceed to polling stations this Saturday, 14th February 2015, to vote in the country’s 15th head of state. However, expected long queues and subsequent jubilations might have to wait a further six weeks as the country’s electoral body, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), announced a postponement of the election. Electorates, international organisations and the United States, represented earlier last month by Secretary of State John Kerry, have all spoken out against the postponement. The consensus message is that a delayed election will heighten political tension, a situation that could result in violence. Beyond that, Nigeria, particularly its economy, which is Africa’s biggest, is expected to suffer some dire consequences, owing largely to this announcement.

These are some of the possible consequences:

Protest and social unrest: In the last half-decade, Nigeria has had its fair share of unrest, no thanks to Boko Haram, the terror group wreaking havoc in North Eastern Nigeria. But this postponement might fuel more volatility within the society as Nigerians could flood the streets in protest. In the capital city Abuja, signs of protest are already surfacing, with the military and security forces stationed strategically to manage any mishap.

Sanctions: With the US keenly interested in the electoral process, a bet against sanctions over the postponement might be a losing one. The US, the world’s most powerful country, regularly paths this way when dealing with behaviours it considers undemocratic. Though Nigeria remains America’s largest African trading partner, the $18 billion relationship could be on the brink if the US decides to use this as an economic weapon.

Weakened Naira: Nigeria’s Naira has so far survived its biggest value crash in years, but can it last an additional six weeks of uncertainty? Over the last year, the Naira lost more than 30 percent in value, and is currently trading below N210/$1 at black markets. The global oil price fall and uncertainties surrounding the elections are the key factors behind the currency crash. Statistics however support the latter as the Naira regularly suffer massive hits during election periods due to uncertainty and anxiety by traders who usually rush into panic dollar purchases.

Capital Market bail: Nigeria’s stock market was labelled the worst performing in Africa last year, losing over $4.5 billion. This was largely driven by a massive pull-out of funds by foreign investors – whom constitute a little over 50 percent of total market participation. They were said to be worried about the volatility of the economy and business environment, particularly with upcoming elections and the fall in global oil prices. Now imagine what the fate of the market will be for the next six weeks.

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