The battle for governorship in Oyo is more about history than political parties

Call it a myth or an “irritating apologue“, but history shows that no governor has ever been re-elected into office in Oyo State. This is strange in a country where most elected public office holders are usually guaranteed an 8-year run of two terms.

This jinx, however, may be broken this Saturday as Nigeria holds gubernatorial elections. This is because three of the four leading candidates in the state have all previously served terms as governors.

When the people of Oyo State go to the polls on April 11, most of them will choose among the top three candidates — Alao Akala of the Labour Party, Rasheed Ladoja of the Accord Party and the incumbent, Abiola Ajimobi of the All Progressives Congress (APC) — who retain the most popularity among the vying candidates. But if history is to repeat itself, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)’s governorship candidate, Teslim Folarin will emerge as the next governor of Oyo State. There are also eight other candidates who will fancy their chances.

Since Nigeria returned to democracy in 1999, Oyo has had a new leader, every four years. Dr Lam Adesina won the first election that year, but he was replaced four years later by Rashidi Ladoja. Although Ladoja had political troubles which led to a temporary impeachment (that lasted for almost a year before he was reinstated), it was clear he was not going to win a second term as the Ibadan people could not ‘serve a leader’ twice. Ladoja’s successor, Alao Akala also lasted one term.

The people of the ancient city of Ibadan are the proponents of the saying that they ‘cannot serve a leader twice’, which has now become a scare for every serving governor in the state. People from other parts of Oyo are widely believed to have no problem electing the same leader twice, but Ibadan wields in Oyo today, the kind of influence it had throughout Southwestern Nigeria, prior to the country’s independence in 1960. The city is Nigeria’s third largest metropolitan area, by population, so it is significant when it comes to elections in the state. Over 3 million people that make up the city are spread across 11 local government areas (LGAs), representing over 30 percent of the LGAs in the state.

As the governorship candidates go into Saturday’s election hoping they have done enough to convince voters in campaigns across the state, eyes will also be on the developments in Ibadan where the battle for the state is often won or lost.

The next governor will be sworn in on May 29 when Abiola Ajimobi would have finished a term as governor of Oyo State. Ajimobi had last July vowed to break the jinx that has never allowed a governor to win a second term in the state. “I will be the first governor to break that jinx. Who says Ibadan never serves a governor twice? I will be the first to achieve that.”

Ajimobi’s confidence stems from his accomplishments, which he claimed were there for all to see. Whether he will be able to break the curse or history will repeat itself remains to be seen.

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