In a hall full of art enthusiasts and the like, Andrei Karlov, the Russian envoy to Turkey moved from portrait to portrait observing with a diplomatic touch the work of artists at the Cagdas Sanat Maekezi modern arts centre, in Ankara, Turkey. As the ambassador moved forward to address the guests, 22-year-old Mevlut Mert Aydintas, an off-duty policeman emptied his pump-action pistol into Karlov’s back; eight shots were heard.
“God is Great (Allahu-Akbar); Do not forget Aleppo; Do not forget Syria,” Altinas was heard shouting as he went on. “Only death will remove me from here.”
The self-appointed judge, jury and executioner, Mevlut Altinas, lost his life after an ensuing gun battle.
Russia has not experienced a tragedy of this scale for over 90 years. The last assassination of a high-ranking diplomatic official occurred in 1923 when Soviet diplomat Vatslav Vorovsky was assassinated by a White Guard officer in Switzerland.
The death of the ambassador has already led to a “blame game” by the different parties involved. Britain has been accused of complicity in the assassination by Russian ultranationalist leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Turkey blames US-based exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen (who has also been blamed for the failed coup in July 2016), Russia’s president Vladimir Putin called the attack a provocation” aimed at undermining peace talks between Turkey and Russia over Syria, and Recep Erdoğan, said that the attack was “an attack on Turkey, the Turkish state and the Turkish people”.
The world expresses grief
US President-elect Donald Trump condemned the assassination of Karlov, saying in a statement that the attack had been carried out by a “radical Islamic terrorist” and violated “all rules of civilised order.”
UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the murder as “despicable.” He took to Twitter “Shocked to hear of [the] despicable murder of Russia’s Ambassador to Turkey. My thoughts are with his family. I condemn this cowardly attack.”
Sweden’s Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom wrote on her Twitter page that she was “deeply shocked” by the Russian ambassador’s murder.
In Syria, the SANA news agency said that the government resolutely condemned the assassination of the Russian diplomat, citing the Syrian foreign ministry.
Iraq also expressed deep condolences and sympathy with the Russian people and authorities.
Peru’s Foreign Ministry called on the international community to “double efforts in the decisive fight against terrorism in all its forms and manifestations.”
The Russian embassy in Ankara, Turkey has been cordoned off meanwhile representatives of Russian companies operating in Turkey and foreign embassy employees are bringing flowers to the Russian embassy over the death of Ambassador Andrey Karlov.
Ties that bind
Karlov’s assassination has been observed as one that could lead to an exaggeration of force or retaliation and in some circles compared to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria in Sarajevo in 1914 that sparked off World War I.
The relationship between the two countries despite being strained pre-1920, improved as a result of the Bolshevik Soviet assistance to Turkish revolutionaries during the Turkish War of Independence. By 1932, Turkey took its first foreign loans from the Soviet Union, while modelling its first 5-year economic and industrial development plan after that of the Soviet Union
The good relations between Moscow and Ankara lasted until Joseph Stalin demanded Soviet bases on the Turkish Straits after the Montreux Convention in 1936.
Turkey joined NATO in 1952 and placed itself within the Western alliance against the Warsaw Pact during the Cold War, while really established poor relations between the two countries.
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, relations improved following a state visit in 1992 to Moscow by Turkish Prime Minister Süleyman Demirel which saw the signing of a Russian-Turkish treaty.
In 2009, then Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan flew to Sochi, Russia for a working visit with then Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at which both leaders expressed their dedication to work together.
Seven years afterwards and both presidents in their respective countries, the relationship between Turkey and Russia is a symbiotic one.
The murder of Andrei Karlov, might reveal how desperate extremists are in pushing forth goals. As world leaders formulate strategies post 9/11, many of such zealots are running out of funds and support. Although the motivation behind the killing remains unknown, it was obvious that the case of Altinas was that of one who blamed governments for action or inaction.
However, Karlov’s death is unlikely to change the course of events in Turkey, Russia or Syria. Moscow and Ankara and Iran are expected to meet to discuss the situation in Aleppo.
Given the body language of both leaders of the affected countries, it is likely that Karlov’s death may further encourage solidifying their relationship. Additionally, the murder may consolidate Erdoğan’s grip on Turkey.
All over Syria
This isn’t exactly a sign of festivities; Russia and Turkey have been parties to a ceasefire agreement in Aleppo over the past few weeks. The truce, which has suffered setbacks at different points, is meant to evacuate thousands of trapped civilians as well as militants who have agreed to stop fighting and be transferred to other parts of the Syrian territory.
Assad’s regime in Syria has been primarily backed by Russia who has been allies way before the current regime of Bashar al-Assad. Airstrikes have been carried out since 2015. Given Russia’s position as part of the United Nations Security Council, many believe that a political solution to the crisis in Syria may have been blocked by imposing its powers.
On the other hand, Turkey’s involvement is a complicated one. Much of its campaign is has been motivated towards dealing with ISIS as it has pushed Kurdish fighters in the hope that an independent Kurdish state does not claim part of Turkish territory.
However, being a part of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), Turkey may be walking on egg shells as the United States supports Kurdish groups in both Syria and Iraq in its battle against ISIS. Among Kurdish groups is a faction called the People’s Protection Group (YPG) which Turkey has termed terrorists; and killed as many as 200 in airstrikes – despite having a common enemy (ISIS), Turkey believes the YPG to be linked to Kurdish insurgents.
Regardless, Turkey is served
Although analysts are of the opinion that the assassination of Andrei Karlov is a significant blow to Turkish-Russian relations, it is unlikely to impair these relations and comparisons to a World War III scenario may be out of proportion.
If anything, it will increase intelligence and security partnership between the two countries.
It is imperative to note that Russia has the upper hand, as Putin had earlier accepted Erdoğan’s apology in response to the 2015 incident.
The timing of the murder is crucial as Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu was scheduled to hold talks in Moscow with his Russian and Iranian counterparts, Sergei Lavrov and Mohammad Javad Zarif as Moscow hopes to bring about a plan for ending Syria’s civil war.
Also, relations between Russia and the US could be strained if there is intent to pursue the allegation that the killing is traced to Fehtullah Gulen as a case could be made to extradite him from the United States.
It’s not all rosy as hostilities will ensue; after Turkey shot the plane, the country faced a number of stiff economic sanctions from Russia; suspension of visa-free travel to Russia for Turkish citizens, limits on Turkish residents and companies doing business in Russia and restrictions on imports of Turkish products. There were also reports that Russian was involved in state-sponsored terrorism in Turkey – as it stands there is a call to avoid going to Turkey by Russians.
There is the suspicion that Putin’s real attraction to the actions in Turkey may go beyond the non-smiling stance his puts for the situation.
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