On Monday, 20th of May 2017, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the third quarter (Q3) GDP figure for 2017. According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by 1.40 percent compared to 0.71 percent in Q2 2017 (revised from 0.55 percent due to the revision of oil GDP to 3.53 percent) and -2.24 percent in Q2 2016. This represents the best performance since 2015 Q4 figure of 2.11 percent.
How the oil and non-oil sector fared in the first quarter of 2017?
According to NBS, the report also revealed that the non-oil sector contributed 89.86 percent to the growth of the GDP as opposed to the oil sector, which contributed 10.04 percent.
The oil sector
During the period under review, oil production, averaged at 2.03 million barrels per day (mbpd), which is higher than 1.87 mbpd produced in the second quarter of 2017 but below 2.16 mbpd recorded in the fourth quarter of 2015.
The growth rate of the oil sector to the GDP contracted by -11.64 percent in Q1 of 2017 representing a -4.81 percent decline from 6.83 percent recorded in the corresponding quarter in 2016.
The non-oil sector
In the period under review, the Non-Oil sector contributed 89.96 percent to the nation’s GDP. This is lower than 91.91 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2016 and 90.96 percent in the second quarter of 2017.
Growth in the non-oil sector was largely driven by the activities in Agriculture (Crop), Other Services and Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply.
A look at how some key sectors fared in Q3 of 2017
The Agriculture sector is made up of four sub-activities: crop production, livestock, forestry and fishing. The Agricultural sector grew by 3.06 percent in Q3 2017 from 3.01 percent in Q2 2017 and 4.54 percent in Q3 2016 with crop production being the largest contributor to the sector. In the first quarter of 2017, crop production accounted for 91.97 percent of the sector.
According to NBS, in nominal terms (without taking inflation into account), the sector grew by 12.50 percent year-on-year. This was 5.13 percent points higher than the growth rate recorded in the same quarter of 2016.
During the quarter under review, Agriculture contributed 24.44 percent to nominal GDP. This is higher than the rates recorded for the third quarter of 2016 and second quarter of 2017 at 24.11 percent and 19.28 percent respectively.
Mining and Quarrying
The Mining and Quarrying sector has four sub-activities, which are crude petroleum and natural gas, coal mining, metal ore and quarrying and other minerals. The Mining and Quarrying sector contributed 11.17 percent to overall GDP in the third quarter of 2017, higher than the contributions recorded in 2016 third quarter and the previous quarter at 6.15 percent, and 9.08 percent respectively.
Crude petroleum and natural gas recorded a growth rate of 102.79 percent, metal ore recorded 22.75 percent and Quarrying and other metals recorded 27.94 percent respectively, maintaining strong year on year growth when compared with the corresponding quarter growth rates of 2016 at 4.09 percent, 17.11 percent and 16.46 percent respectively.
In real terms, the Mining and Quarrying sector grew by 25.44 percent (year-on-year) in the third quarter of 2017.
There are over thirteen activities in Nigeria’s Manufacturing sector, which include: oil refining, cement, food, beverages, tobacco, textile, apparel, footwear, wood and wood products, pulp paper and paper products, chemical and pharmaceutical products, nonmetallic products, plastic and rubber products, electrical and electronic, basic metal and iron and steel and motor vehicles and assembly.
NBS revealed that for the first quarter of 2017, the manufacturing sector in the current quarter of 2017 contracted by -2.85 percent in Q3 2017 from 0.64 percent, in Q2 2017 and -4.38 percent in Q3 2016. Oil Refining under Manufacturing sector contracted by 45.40 percent in Q3 2017 from 11.28 percent in Q2 2017 and -0.86 percent in Q3 2016. Cement under Manufacturing sector contracted by -4.56 percent in Q3 2017 from -4.16 percent in Q2 2017 and -6.26 percent in Q3 2016.
Information and Communication
The Information and Communication sector is made up of telecommunications and information services, publishing, motion picture, sound recording and music production, and broadcasting. The Information and Communication sector contracted by -4.48 percent in Q3 2017 from -1.15 percent in Q2 2017 and 1.11 percent in Q3 2016. The main driver of this growth was broadcasting.
Finance and Insurance
The Finance and Insurance Sector consists of the two subsectors: financial institutions and insurance firms. Financial Institutions contracted by -6.54 percent in Q3 2017 from 11.78 percent in Q2 2017 and 2.85 percent in Q3 2016. Insurance contracted by -1.86 percent in Q3 2017 from 3.79 percent in Q2 2017 and 1.22 percent in Q3 2016.
Financial institutions account for 87.09 percent of the sector and insurance firms account for 12.91 percent.