The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global growth to plunge -4.9 percent this year, 1.9 percentage points below the April 2020 forecast, reflecting increased uncertainty around the coronavirus outbreak worldwide.

The pandemic has had more negative impact on activities in the first half of 2020 than anticipated, and recovery is projected to be slower than previously forecast, the IMF said in its June 2020 World Economic Outlook update.

“We are definitely not out of the woods,” Chief Economist and director of IMF’s research department Gita Gopinath said Wednesday. “This is a crisis like no other and will have a recovery like no other.”

Global growth is projected at 5.4 percent next year, leaving 2021 gross domestic product some six and a half percentage points lower compared to January 2020 projections prior Covid-19.

The IMF warned that the adverse impact on low-income households is particularly acute, setting back the significant progress made in reducing extreme poverty in the world since the 1990s.

The world is facing the worst downturn since the Great Depression, Gopinath added, but the depth and duration of the economic collapse are not expected to be as severe, given the strength of the economy going into the crisis and the relative stability of the financial system.

However, as with earlier projections, there is a “higher-than-usual” degree of uncertainty around this forecast, the IMF said.

Across the world, countries are experiencing surges in new cases, complicating plans to reopen their economies. Even with some businesses resuming, voluntary social distancing and workplace safety standards are weighing on economic activity, the Fund notes.

The path of the recovery remains difficult to track, Gopinath said. Much will depend on the development of a vaccine or cure for the coronavirus disease or whether future waves create the need for additional lockdowns.

The cumulative loss of total output for the global economy this year and next year will top $12 trillion even, the Fund said, while adding policy recommendations on responding to the Covid-19 crisis going forward.