On Thursday last week, the Statistician General of the National Bureau of Statistics in Nigeria, Dr. Yemi Kale, announced that Nigeria’s second quarter GDP, Trade and Unemployment report for 2016 will be published on the 31st of August 2016. He also apologised for the delay in publishing the figures, which should have been out earlier.

Nigerians and the global community are patiently waiting to see the current state of Nigeria’s GDP, which is now reported to be lower than that of South Africa. Last week, it was announced that South Africa has overtaken South Africa to become Africa’s largest economy.

The first quarter figures for Nigeria’s GDP showed a negative growth rate compared to the fourth quarter report of 2015. In Q1, Nigeria’s GDP fell from the 2.7 percent recorded in 2015, to -0.36 percent in 2016, showing that the country was headed for a recession.

Nigeria GDP

Foreign Investment in the country for Q1 also fell by 56 percent from $395m in Q1 to $175m. Surprisingly, the Q1 GDP figure also revealed that the non-oil sector contributed 89.71 percent to the country’s economic growth while the oil sector contributed 10.29 percent. Also, the agricultural sector contributed 19.17 percent to nominal GDP in Q1 2016 and the trade’s contribution to nominal GDP in Q1 was recorded at 21.55 percent.

Following the fall in the price of oil globally in 2014, Nigeria has been one of the hardest hit economies due its over dependence on oil as its only source of revenue. China’s economic slow down as well as the US rate hike, also affected the country’s economy. As a result, the country’s economic growth has declined dramatically with its currency falling to an all time low. Investors are pulling out regularly as most of them are scared to leave their investments in the country thanks to new monetary policies. The CBN put in stringent policies to help save the Naira from falling, instead, the currency only weakened further.

Even as South Africa has over taken Nigeria as the largest economy in the Africa, global economies are waiting to see if Nigeria’s economy will grow or further contract as predicted by some economists. While the world waits for the figures to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics, here are five things to expect from the report:

What happens to the GDP growth rate?
According to economic experts, Nigeria’s economy, which contracted from 2.1 percent to -0.36 percent, is expected to contract further. However, Nigeria’s GDP growth rate is forecasted to fall around -0.7 percent. This is because the economic issues in the country, including high inflation rates, high exchange rates as well as high interest rates, have affected the sectors contributing to its GDP negatively.

What about the contribution of oil sector?
Following the attacks on pipelines and oil facilities by militants in the Niger Delta, the country’s oil output has fallen to 1.5 million bpd. This fall in oil production and the fall in oil price will affect the contribution of the oil sector to Nigeria’s economic growth.

Will the contribution of the service sector increase?
The increase in inflation rates and the fall in disposable income of Nigerians as a result of the economic issues, has affected several sectors in Nigeria, including the service sector. Several businesses in this sector have been experiencing low patronage because people are not willing to spend. In view of this, the service sector’s contribution to the economic growth for Q2 is expected to fall further.

And the manufacturing sector?
According to experts, Nigeria’s manufacturing sector is far from achieving its aim. This is because of the epileptic power supply in the country, as well as a lack of input for production. Currently, manufacturers in the country are finding it difficult to import components need to complete production, due to the unavailability of foreign currency. Many manufacturers have stopped because they can’t afford to produce any longer.

Should we expect an increase in the contribution of the agricultural sector?
Since the fall in oil price hit the country, the people have clamoured for the diversification of the economy in order to generate revenue from other sectors. In view of this, the country put policies to boost local production. The country is now looking at the agricultural sector as its saviour from the effects of the fall in oil price. As a result of the efforts put into the sector by the government as well as the interest of Nigerians on the Agriculture, the sector is expected to grow. The contribution of the sector towards Nigeria’s Q2 GDP is expected to increase.

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