Roughly four years ago, Chinua Achebe, one of Africa’s most celebrated authors, published There Was A Country, an autobiography in memory of the country he and his people of Nigeria’s old-eastern region fought for, but ultimately failed to sustain. Today, another African country, conceived from the dream of equality and borne out of the struggle for freedom, is gradually petering out. Ultimately, their pathologies are different. While Biafra suffered a quick, violent and literal death from external aggression, Rainbow South Africa is being condemned to a slow painful death by the internal forces of failed leadership and pervasive corruption. Once the hope for multi-ethnic progress, socio-political success and economic growth and development, the rainbow nation has gradually turned into a black and white image of socio-political strife and economic distress. With dark realities of its present and bleak hope for the future, the most luminous memories of South Africa are now of its past—when it was still mostly just a vision.

When Nelson Mandela became the President of a South Africa that had just dethroned apartheid, the potential of the reborn nation was limitless. “The brightest hope of a benighted continent,” the Economist called it. South Africa remained that, at least until Mandela’s exit from the presidency in 1999, when the New York Times wrote that “the five years…have seen a genuine change of political power, widespread respect for the rule of law and none of the political revenge killings that have marked other societies in transition. South Africa has many problems, such as desperate poverty and terrifying crime. But its suffering would have been infinitely greater in the absence of the moral authority and democratic, inclusive spirit that made Mr. Mandela a giant as leader of the liberation movement and as President.”

Today, without a very necessary moral authority and democratic, inclusive spirit in its leader, poverty and crime have not only remained huge problems in South Africa, they are joined by economic stagnation, rising political violence and a  lack of policy direction. Things will only will get worse before they get better, warns the Institute of Security Studies which argues, in its latest analysis of economics, politics and instability in South Africa, that it is unlikely that the country will see the political changes needed to revitalise the economy, reduce inequality and stem the increase in violence. Standing in the way of those necessary political changes is President Zuma, whose reign has been a mix bag of corruption scandals and inept governance, and the ANC which has slumped from the revered heights of South Africa’s liberator to a party of cronyism and nepotism.

Removing both hurdles to South African progress has not been successful and does not even seem possible in the nearest future. Jacob Zuma, backed up by his party’s majority in the parliament, survived an impeachment vote called by the opposition party, the Democratic Alliance (DA), in April. There is every likelihood that he will reach the end of his tenure regardless of how blindly he leads South Africa for the next three years. Unfortunately, South Africa’s troubles may not end with Zuma’s exit in 2019 due to the ANC obstinate cling unto cronyism and rejection of the reforms that it badly needs. Despite the many flaws of the ruling party they are likely to still come out tops in the 2019 elections thanks, in part, to the problems of the two major opposition parties—the DA with its inability to totally shed its white-party image and the Economic Freedom Fighter’s (EFF) scary fascist tendencies.

The consequence is a heightened tendency for chaos. ‘Protests have become a part of daily life, increasing markedly since 2010’, says Ciara Aucoin, ISS researcher and co-author of the scenarios papers. ‘What’s worrying is the growing number of them that are turning violent.’ While she adds that election violence does not have deep roots in South Africa, analysts worry that the August local government elections could be different. A major reason for the rising fear of chaos is the record low level of trust the people have for the government and institutions of the state. According to survey results from Afrobarometer 2015, only a third of South Africans now say they trust President Jacob Zuma; down from nearly two-thirds in 2011.

Ironically, while the ANC is responsible for leading South Africa off the course of its huge promise, the party is still the best bet to shepherd the country back to its Rainbow vision. The possibility of that happening is largely dependent on the outcome of the power struggle between the traditionalists and reformers in the ANC, says the ISS Africa. “These internal dynamics are arguably more important to watch than the dynamics between the ANC and opposition parties,” argues Dr Jakkie Cilliers, Head of African Futures and Innovation at the institute. “The upcoming local elections in August will tell us what to expect when the ANC elects its new president in 2017,” he adds. “December 2017 could be a game-changer. If the traditionalist camp in the ANC continues to dominate, growth prospects will be poor and a weaker economy is likely to drive up violence levels and widen the gap between the haves and have-nots… If the reformist group prevails, the ANC could be rescued from its current crisis and take the country forward.”

The most chaotic outcome, warns ISS Africa, would be if tensions between the Traditionalist and Reformist factions are not resolved by 2017 and Zuma’s successor is another traditionalist. “The party could see a split not dissimilar to the one that led to the creation of opposition parties COPE and the EFF. At this point, South Africa would enter an unprecedented era of coalition politics at national and provincial levels. But coalition politics on its own will still not solve South Africa’s problems; only a politics that refocuses on creating jobs, reducing economic inequality and tackles corruption could. ‘South Africa has no choice but to build an inclusive economy that deals with our historical legacy issues’, agrees Cilliers. ‘This should be the primary focus of government. But at the same time, we need to invest in a knowledge economy to spur much more rapid rates of growth – something that the current model of a developmental state cannot deliver since it requires a close partnership with the private sector.’