A few weeks ago, the people of Shaki community in Oyo state started experiencing earth tremors that lasted several days. These sudden movements didn’t occur in Shaki alone, but also in surrounding communities. Since then, the residents of Shaki have fled their homes, while others who remain, do so in fear.
Following this event, experts warn of an imminent earthquake in Nigeria’s south-west in the next four years. In a report titled, ‘Preliminary Assessment of Earth Tremor Occurrence in Shaki Area, Shaki West Local Government, Oyo State,’ researchers from the Department of Geology, Obafemi Awolowo University, led by Dr Adepelumi A. Abraham, indicate that the people in the southwestern region will experience a ‘damaging earthquake’ before the year 2020.
Research leader, Adepelumi, is no stranger to seismic researches, he conducted one 6 years ago when a similar tremor occurred in Ogun State, Abeokuta in 2009. At the time, Adepelumi suggested that the risk of more earthquakes in that region was 2.8 percent. But in the recent report, the risk of imminent earthquakes in the south-west region has risen to 91.1 percent.
“… Our findings indicate the probability of earthquake occurrence in the study area between the year 2009 and 2028 increased from 2.8 percent to 91.1 percent.” The geologist has advised the federal government to adopt proactive strategies towards preventing the impending disasters.
As if to corroborate the findings of Adepelumi, the Nigerian Association of Water-Well Drilling Rig Owners and Practitioners (AWDROP) recently also warned that a lack of regulating guidelines in the abstraction of underground water will induce earthquake and sea water intrusion in the country.
According to them, continuous drilling for underground water (boreholes) without adherence to the standard practice will soon result in earthquakes and circumstances in which portable water would become difficult to get. “Hence, the need for government to ensure strict compliance in the implementation of a code of practice in borehole drilling in the country,” said Mr. Michael Ale, National President, AWDROP.
Prior to 2005, it was believed that Nigeria was outside the seismic region and declared safe from earthquakes, however, it was later gathered from the Centre of Geodesy and Geodynamics (CGG), that certain parts of the country, particularly the South West, were susceptible to earthquakes.
Back in 2009, when the tremor in Ogun sate occurred, Adepelumi said Nigeria is now regarded to be within the seismic region and should be prepared for likely incidents of earthquakes. He also stated the urgent need for the country to invest in disaster monitoring equipment to help in mitigating likely disasters. Clearly, no one paid attention, like no one is doing now.
Recently, Mr Kunle Awobodu, The National President, Building Collapse Prevention Guild, echoed the statements of Adepelumi when he said that geophysical and geological studies have discovered that a fault zone connecting the Atlantic fracture system exists along Ifewara in Osun State and Zungeru in Niger State.
Residents of Shaki say the tremors which began about three months ago, happen on a regular basis. “At times, the ground could vibrate five times a day and at times, it may not vibrate within three days,” a resident of the area told Vanguard. He added that whenever the tremors happened, buildings are shaken to their cores. Additionally, the Permanent Secretary for Environment, Oyo State, Mr Oguntola Gabriel has said that the tremors are a precursor to an earthquake.
Nigeria has experienced earth tremors since the 1920’s, with the first recorded in Warri in 1923. Since then, there have been several others of different magnitudes but never a violent earthquake. But since the fact of an impending violent earthquake has been established, what has the Nigerian government done? This is certainly not the time to look over such an issue or traces of an impending natural disaster; instead, the government needs to challenge the status quo of being a reactive government.
