percent, according to new analysis on the global outlook on rice production and demand released last week, by IHS, a global source of critical information and insight. Africa’s rapid expansion of areas for rice production will be the fastest globally, in percentage terms.
“Cote d’Ivoire intends on spending $4 billion on agriculture development in order to improve crop yields and, in four years, become a rice exporter,” said Karanta Kalley, chief economist for Africa at IHS.
However, economic development, particularly in West Africa, is rather questionable. “Right now, the question on everyone’s mind is what the impact of Ebola will be on the economic growth of sub-Saharan Africa,” Kalley said.
IHS expects gross domestic product (GDP) growth to be lowered significantly for 2014 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as a result of the ongoing Ebola outbreak.
The IHS confirmed GDP growth rate forecasts have been cut between one-half and nine-tenths of previous forecasts, with Sierra Leone’s economy projected to have the highest rate of growth at 3.1 percent followed by Guinea at 2 percent. IHS foresees only a marginal real economic growth rate of 0.8 percent for Liberia’s economy.
The spread of Ebola is still a concern for Nigeria, the region’s most populated area and economic giant. “Public awareness and facilities in Lagos are better than in the Sierra Leone-Guinea-Liberia triangle, so there is a good chance that Nigeria can control its outbreak,” Kalley said.
“Although agriculture has dropped from 35 percent of the Nigerian economy to 22 percent due to the recent data criteria change, prospects for Nigeria’s real economic growth for the rest of 2014 are bright”.
In the next year, world rice demand is predicted to rise to 478 million metric tons, a 4.4 million metric ton increase from the previous year. By 2016, that figure is expected to rise by 4.5 million metric tons, to 483 million metric tons.
“Asian demand, from China in particular, is driving a majority of the growth in rice consumption during 2014/15,” said IHS senior economist Brandon Kliethermes. “However, Africa’s rice import demand is pumping the world’s long-term import growth.”
World rice yields in the next year are expected to gradually improve year over year to 2.96 metric tons per hectare, but world production is projected to increase by a little over one million metric tons.
This implies that India will lose top spot as a result of issues relating to a later monsoon. “Thailand has regained its spot as top exporter, reaching 10 million metric tons, followed by India at 8.4 million metric tons, and then Vietnam at 6.6 million metric tons. With the military government in Thailand aggressively trying to find a solution to their large rice inventory, Thai rice exports are expected to increase.”
Thailand and India will subsequently battle for the position of top exporter, with both exporting more than 12 million metric tons per year.
